GuidesScenarios and the planner

Interpret model results

Checked against product: 27 October 2026 · Owner: Wealthie product team

Purpose

Use this guide to read and explain the results of a scenario: what chance of success measures, how goals affect it, how to read the cashflow, which dollar basis you are looking at and what the projection does not tell you.

Projections are estimates based on the inputs and assumptions in the scenario. They are not a guarantee of future outcomes and they are not a suitability score.

Before you start

A saved scenario with people, cashflow and wealth filled in.
Familiarity with the new planner layout.

Where to find it

Open a scenario → the chart picker → Chance of success, Goals, Cashflow, Growth or Table.
Open a scenario → Assumptions for the settings that drive the results.

How chance of success is defined

Wealthie runs the scenario many times with different simulated market returns (between 500 and 1,000 runs, set under Simulations). Chance of success is the percentage of those runs that succeed. A run succeeds when both of these are true:

All planned spending could be paid in every year. A run fails if a shortfall could not be covered, either because Overdraft is Off or because the overdraft limit was reached.
Net wealth at the end of the plan is above $0 or, if you have set a Desired estate value, at least that amount.

What counts as net wealth

The success test uses the scenario's own settings. Net wealth always counts savings, investments and KiwiSaver. Depending on the scenario, it can also count property equity (with or without the family home) and other asset equity. The overdraft setting and limit also affect the result. Two scenarios with different settings measure success differently, so compare their chance of success only when those settings match. The assistant flags this when it compares scenarios.

Read the results

Step 1: Start with chance of success
The ring shows the percentage against your target (set in Assumptions → Success target). The Chance of success view also shows a net wealth range: the middle (median) result with bands for the spread of outcomes, and the share of runs still funded at each age.
Step 2: Check the goals
The Goals view shows chance of success as each goal is added in priority order, and how many points each goal takes away. Goals must keep the plan at or above the success target.
Step 3: Check the cashflow
The Cashflow view shows income, withdrawals and spending for each year. Hover over an age to see that year's lines and whether the year is in surplus or shortfall.
Step 4: Confirm the dollar basis
Future dollars show amounts as they would be in each future year. Today's dollars remove inflation so amounts compare with what money buys now. Check Show values in before you quote a figure, and say which basis it uses.
Step 5: Review the assumptions
Under Assumptions, check inflation, number of simulations, overdraft, success target, desired estate value and withdrawal order. Fund return assumptions come from the funds selected in the scenario.

How Wealthie models returns

In the current model, shares and bonds move together, so a market fall affects most funds at once. Expected returns are long-run compound returns before fees and tax, set from each fund's growth assets. Money paid into and taken out of funds moves month by month. Fund tax follows New Zealand rules, including FDR on overseas shares. Results are seeded, so re-running an unchanged scenario gives the same figures.

Limitations

A projection depends on its inputs. Out-of-date client data produces out-of-date results; refresh the scenario before relying on it.
Chance of success is not a guarantee, a probability that markets will behave as modelled, or a measure of whether advice is suitable.
Simulated returns cannot capture every possible market event, change in law or change in personal circumstances.
Chance of success and net wealth are only comparable between scenarios that count net wealth the same way and use the same overdraft setting.
Issued documents keep the figures they were issued with. A later change to the model or scenario does not alter them unless you refresh an unsigned document's figures.

What you should see

You can explain to a client what the chance of success percentage means and what would make a run fail.
Any figure you quote is labelled as projected and as Future dollars or Today's dollars.

What is saved or sent

Reading results does not change the scenario. Changing assumptions does, and the status shows Unsaved changes until you save.
Nothing is sent to the client.

If something goes wrong

Chance of success looks wrong: Check the scenario's starting data, the Overdraft setting, the Desired estate value and the Simulations setting. A shortfall with Overdraft Off fails the run even if net wealth recovers later.
Two scenarios give very different results for a small change: Check that both scenarios count net wealth the same way and use the same overdraft setting. Ask the assistant to compare them; see Plan with the assistant.
Money left and chance of success disagree: They measure different things. Money left counts any run above $0; chance of success also fails runs where some spending could not be paid, or that miss the estate target.